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The jobs picture is pretty dismal. The official national unemployment rate is still at a relatively high 9.5% – and the underemployment rate at a more alarming 16.5%. But that’s not all of it. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are more than five applicants for every job. It now takes 35 weeks on average to get a job. And 45% of people have been out of work more than a half year. At the beginning of the recession it took 17 weeks and only 17% of people were out of work more than a half year.
Are there any bright spots? A few, says Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com. Geographically: Texas – particularly Dallas and Houston because being larger cities, they have more jobs, but also Austin and San Antonio. Some of the country’s “logistical” centers, areas where there are jobs in transportation, distribution, warehousing and wholesaling, are faring well. These include Louisville, Memphis, Salt Lake City, Kansas City. Also, Boston and San Francisco because there are signs of life in technology and education.
And by Sector: Health care, educational services (although the lack of aid from the states hasn’t helped recently), manufacturing, professional services (accounting, legal aid, management consulting) and Wall Street. Zandi is also expecting to see job creation from the banks. As they start lending, he explains, we’ll see jobs in loan origination and managing credit risk. There will eventually be jobs that come back in retail, leisure and hospitality but not for the next year.
Job creation needs to ramp up, however, to bring down the unemployment rate. Right now, we are creating about 100,000 jobs a month and have added 600,000 this year. Because so many of the folks sitting on the sidelines will eventually start looking for jobs again, we need to create 150,000 a month just to stabilize the unemployment rate. And we need to create more than that to bring the rate down. Both Zandi and employment expert John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray and Christmas, expect that to start happening by Spring 2011.
So what do you do if you’re out of work and see few prospects?
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